West Africa is grappling with a seismic shift in its regional dynamics as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES, the French acronym) in September. The AES had not only been established as a new political and military bloc but also as a confederation.
This development comes amid their departure from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in February and adds to the political instability in the region.
Founded in 1975, ECOWAS's primary goal has been to promote economic cooperation among its 15 member states, but it has also played a significant role in addressing political crises and maintaining stability in the region.
The declaration of withdrawal of these three countries from ECOWAS in early 2024 followed accusations that the bloc, under the influence of foreign powers, had betrayed its founding principles of pan-Africanism. In a joint statement, the military-led governments claimed ECOWAS had become a threat to its members by failing to support their fight against terrorism and insecurity while imposing "illegal, illegitimate, inhumane, and irresponsible sanctions."
These allegations reflect deeper frustrations over ECOWAS’s perceived inability to address the region's rampant instability, compounded by what the departing nations view as undue foreign interference.
The exit has its roots in a series of military coups that have swept through these countries since 2020. Each coup ousted democratically elected governments, triggering condemnation from the international community.
ECOWAS responded by suspending their memberships and imposing sanctions, including trade restrictions and asset freezes, in an effort to pressure these nations to return to civilian rule, as necessitated by ECOWAS rules. The bloc had even threatened military intervention in Niger, to no avail, impacting their credibility.
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger hold great strategic importance for ECOWAS, making their departure a major blow to the bloc. Together, these countries comprise 76 million people of the bloc’s total 446 million, and more than half of its geographical land area alongside vast tracts of the Sahara. This also marks the first time any country has left ECOWAS since its establishment in 1975, much less founder states, further injuring ECOWAS’s influence and reputation.
The three Sahelian states’ key role in ECOWAS is also reflected in the bloc’s persistent attempts to retain their membership, including diplomatic negotiations by the presidents of Senegal and Togo. ECOWAS has offered a transitional period of six months hoping to convince them to return, from January to July 2025, where the three countries can rejoin if they so wish, although bloc leaders have said they respect the juntas’ decision to leave.
The withdrawal of French military forces and the imposition of economic sanctions on already fragile economies have amplified fears of armed groups expanding their operations southwards, threatening the stability of coastal nations such as Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Ivory Coast. This potential spillover underscores the growing vulnerability of the region.
As reported by Al Jazeera, West Africa experienced over 1,800 attacks in the first half of 2023 alone, leading to nearly 4,600 deaths and exacerbating humanitarian crises across the region. A senior ECOWAS official, as reported by Al Jazeera, described the situation as just “a snippet of the horrendous impact of insecurity,” highlighting the immense challenges faced by the bloc in addressing the escalating violence.
The worsening state of security raises alarm over the potential destabilisation of relatively secure states, further straining regional unity and cooperation.
A key bone of contention, as also specified in their announcement of departure, were the sanctions imposed, later removed in an attempt to appease. ECOWAS lifted most sanctions on Niger, including land, sea, and air blockades and restrictions on access to regional financial institutions.
This was following the military coup that deposed President Mohamed Bazoum in July. However, conditions were imposed which ultimately failed to yield results, including the immediate release of Bazoum and his family, who are still detained.
Sanctions imposed by ECOWAS have had profound human and economic impacts. For example, following two coups in Mali in 2020 and 2021, the bloc imposed economic sanctions to pressure the transitional government to hold elections. These sanctions devastated Mali’s economy, already strained by the COVID-19 pandemic and the global fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine.
Inflation surged, and essential goods like oil and sugar became unaffordable for many. Though some sanctions were lifted in 2022, deep resentment lingers among Malians over the hardship inflicted by the embargo.
The broader impact of sanctions in the region has fueled anti-ECOWAS sentiment, with many viewing the bloc as prioritizing Western interests over the well-being of local populations. This perception has contributed to the distancing of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from ECOWAS, undermining the bloc’s cohesion and its ability to address regional challenges effectively.
However, there remain strong ties between Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and their ECOWAS neighbors, despite the current political fallout. These landlocked Sahel states rely heavily on coastal nations for transport, trade, and labour migration, forming a web of economic and social interdependence.
Significant volumes of formal and informal trade flow across their borders, with livestock from the Sahel states feeding urban populations in cities like Dakar, Abidjan, and Lagos. Meanwhile, crops like onions and potatoes grown in Niger’s arid climate are prized commodities for coastal shoppers, while manufactured goods from countries like Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria flow back in the opposite direction.
According to Al Jazeera, the ECOWAS bloc’s trade and services flow is worth almost $150 billion annually.
The movement of people further cements these ties. Millions of Burkinabès and Malians work in Ivory Coast, forming the backbone of its cocoa industry, which drives much of the region’s economy.
Additionally, despite their political divergence, the coup-led governments of the Sahel states remain committed to the West African CFA franc, a single currency shared by eight countries and backed by France that, while limiting competitiveness, provides crucial protection against inflation and monetary instability. This enduring economic and monetary connection reflects the strong relations of the Sahel states with the broader ECOWAS framework, even as they distance themselves politically.
In a statement, though, AES chairman and Mali's military ruler Assimi Goïta affirmed that ECOWAS citizens would retain the right to "enter, circulate, reside, establish, and leave the territory" of the new bloc, according to BBC. This can be interpreted as a gesture toward maintaining good relations with ECOWAS leaders, even as they formally exit the bloc.
ECOWAS is currently pursuing ambitious development initiatives to strengthen its economy and cohesion, with the coastal transport corridor project at the center of its efforts. The plan involves constructing a four-to-six-lane motorway linking major port cities like Lagos, Abidjan, and Accra, key gateways for regional trade.
This infrastructure project, as reported by BBC, is expected to generate 70,000 jobs and is ambitiously slated for completion by 2030, also includes provisions for a future railway line to enhance connectivity. By streamlining trade and travel, the project aims to boost competitiveness, attract investment, and transform the region into an economic powerhouse.
Modernizing border processes, such as introducing one-stop frontier posts to replace inefficient customs systems, has already reduced bureaucratic delays, signaling progress toward deeper integration. These developments mirror the European Union’s strategy of economic growth and political stability, which successfully attracted former communist states.
Similarly, ECOWAS’s increased prospects of rising prosperity with such projects and trade initiatives could entice the Sahel juntas back into the bloc. The promise of economic opportunity, coupled with the demonstration of collective strength among member states, could serve as a powerful incentive for reintegration, enabling stability and cooperation in the region.
However, political interests seem to take precedence for the AES bloc. The leaders of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have sharply criticized ECOWAS, indirectly or implicitly accusing it of being aligned with Western powers and failing to address pressing security concerns. Captain Ibrahim Traoré of Burkina Faso has seemingly denounced ECOWAS leaders as "house slaves" serving the interests of former colonial powers and condemned their threats of military intervention following Niger's coup in July 2023.
The Sahel leaders, also dissatisfied with mounting jihadist insurgencies, decided to fix the issue through a coordinated military engagement, which AES will function as too, along with turning to Russia to control the insurgency, according to BBC.
They seem to have taken a proactive stance against terrorism by launching a cross-border military force that pools resources and intelligence, allowing for coordinated action against jihadist groups. Notably, it has adopted a NATO-like framework where an attack on one country is considered an attack on all three.
The pact commits the nations to assist one another militarily and address armed rebellions, with concerns growing grave across regions like the conflict-ridden Liptako-Gourma region, where borders meet. According to Al Jazeera, almost half of Burkina Faso was in the control of two armed groups and experienced significant loss to its military in an attack in June this year. This was seen as one of the biggest losses the military faced after the fighting that spread from Mali in 2015.
The three Sahel states were previously part of the France-supported G5 Sahel alliance, established in 2017 alongside Chad and Mauritania to combat armed groups associated with al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS). However, since 2020, all three nations have experienced military coups, signalling significant political instability. The most recent coup occurred in Niger in July 2023, where soldiers overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum, a leader who had closely collaborated with Western allies to address the persistent insurgency in the region.
A prominent shift away from Western powers can be observed across the three military regimes. France has withdrawn troops from Mali and Burkina Faso, and faces demands to leave Niger as relations sour. Meanwhile, Mali has asked for the withdrawal of the United Nations peacekeeping mission, MINUSMA, from its territory.
Many in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have criticized France's mission in the Sahel for failing to quell the Islamist insurgency while undermining their sovereignty, according to RFI. Babacar Ndiaye, a senior fellow at the Timbuktu Institute in Senegal, told RFI, "France has lost its diplomatic and military place in the Sahel for sure," reflecting the growing discontent with France's role in the region.
This approach is aimed at preventing militants from exploiting borders to evade capture, supposedly marking a shift from previous fragmented strategies. Additionally, as reported by RFI, the AES leaders have prioritized economic cooperation (within their new bloc), exemplified by Niger's agreement to supply Mali with 150 million liters of hydrocarbons at a heavily subsidized rate to address power shortages and fuel its power plants.
The bloc's vision extends beyond security and economic arrangements, to be ambitiously political. AES leaders are building closer integration by promoting free movement and shared regional identity among their citizens. Plans for a common currency have also been hinted at, aimed at strengthening economic growth and reducing dependency on external powers. Through these measures, the AES seeks to establish a bloc that is self-reliant, people-centric, and distinct from ECOWAS, which they view as compromised by foreign influences.
Anti-ECOWAS sentiments are also reportedly seen across the three military juntas of Sahel. As per RFI reports, at the Niamey summit, Niger’s ruling General Abdourahamane Tiani declared that “[their] people have irrevocably turned their backs on ECOWAS,” addressing a cheering crowd.
The West African region now faces a significant shift in its regional order, with a marked disintegration and apparently a growing disenfranchisement of the people of AES military regimes. ECOWAS, considered the “leading political authority” in the region according to Africanews since its establishment and as BBC called it, once “Africa’s most developed trading bloc,” finds its strength and credibility diluted with the departure of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.
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References:
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Keywords:
West Africa Politics, ECOWAS Sanctions, AES, Niger Economic Sanctions, Mali Coups, Jihadist Insurgency, G5 Sahel Alliance, West Africa Instability, Sahel Region, Bazoum Detention Niger, France Sahel Influence, ECOWAS Sovereignty Issues, Humanitarian Impact Africa, Mali Economic Crisis, Anti-ECOWAS Sentiment
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