Escalating tensions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine nearly 34 months ago have reached a new crisis point, with Russia announcing the development of a hypersonic missile reportedly capable of "striking decision-making centers."
The Kremlin’s latest move appears to be a direct response to Ukraine’s recent use of long-range missiles provided by the US, UK, and France. These weapons have enabled Kyiv to strike military targets deep inside Russian territory, prompting Moscow to escalate its rhetoric and actions.
Ukrainian attacks on regions such as Bryansk and Kursk have targeted military supply lines and infrastructure, utilizing advanced Western-supplied weaponry like ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles. These strikes, which Kyiv views as a critical element of its counteroffensive, are aimed at crippling Russia’s logistical capabilities and deterring future aggression.
The Kremlin has reacted furiously, accusing Ukraine of direct provocations orchestrated by NATO allies. Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued stern warnings about the potential consequences of these actions, raising fears of wider escalation.
The threat has become even more pronounced with Russia’s recent revision of its nuclear doctrine, which now permits the use of nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks by non-nuclear states supported by nuclear-armed allies. This adjustment, clearly targeting Western involvement in Ukraine, has drawn international alarm.
Against this backdrop, Moscow has showcased its latest ballistic missile system, the Oreshnik, claiming it can evade Western missile defenses. The Oreshnik, meaning "hazel tree" in Russian, was tested "in a non-nuclear hypersonic configuration" and hit its target, according to Putin.
Reports indicate that this new weapon was deployed in strikes on Ukraine’s Dnipro region, a critical hub of the country’s military-industrial complex and efforts to advance ballistic missile capabilities. However, independent verification of the missile's effectiveness remains unavailable.
Putin has claimed that the hypersonic maneuverable missile can reach a top speed of over Mach 10 or 3 kilometres per second – making it impossible to intercept using current air defense systems. Ukrainian military intelligence reports similarly, that the missile covered 800 kilometers to Dnipro in just 15 minutes, achieving a terminal speed of over Mach 11.
“Of course, we will respond to the ongoing strikes on Russia, [..] possibly continuing to test the Oreshnik in combat conditions,” Putin said. He later added that the Russian military is currently identifying potential targets in Ukraine.
In Moscow, citizens express fear and uncertainty about the future, with one resident, Dasha, remarking to Al Jazeera, “I don’t think rockets will fall on Moscow or London, but what’s happening now is completely terrifying.”
Analysts warn that the conflict’s trajectory could spiral into something far more dangerous, as both Moscow and Washington navigate a fine line between avoiding direct confrontation and pursuing strategies that carry immense risks.
Putin’s Oreshnik Missile Threat
The Oreshnik missile, described by Putin as “unstoppable” and capable of delivering destruction comparable to a nuclear strike when used repeatedly, is being hailed by Russian state media as a triumph of military innovation.
However, skepticism and condemnation from Ukrainian officials and international observers paint a more complicated picture.
At a summit of former Soviet States in Kazakhstan, Putin claimed that the Oreshnik is unmatched by any air defense system. He described its power as similar to the impact of a meteorite, suggesting its ability to devastate entire areas.
“We do not rule out the use of Oreshnik against military, military-industrial facilities, or decision-making centers, including in Kyiv,” he said. Although Putin insisted the missile is not currently equipped with nuclear warheads, his comments have set off alarm bells in Ukraine and beyond.
The missile made its battlefield debut in an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro last week. According to reports, the strike caused explosions that lasted for hours, targeting a military-industrial site. Ukrainian military intelligence suggests the Oreshnik is a reconfigured version of an intercontinental ballistic missile, capable of traveling at under Mach 11 with multiple independently guided warheads.
However, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, dismissed these claims, calling the missile’s supposed invincibility “fiction” and likening it to Russia’s earlier exaggerated claims about the Kinzhal missile.
The new missile's technical capabilities remain a subject of debate. Analysts believe it may be a scaled-down version of the Yars-M ICBM or a modified Iskander missile with an advanced engine.
While Putin emphasized the missile’s speed and maneuverability as key features, Podolyak suggested the Oreshnik is less groundbreaking than Russian propaganda suggests. Ukrainian officials maintain that Kyiv’s robust air defense systems, including US-built Patriot systems, are capable of countering such threats despite the missile’s hypersonic speeds.
Meanwhile, Moscow’s state media is celebrating the Oreshnik as a symbol of Russian ingenuity, with some reports of parents even naming their children after the missile. The announcement has also raised concerns in Kyiv, leading to the cancellation of a parliamentary session last Friday.
The Oreshnik’s introduction comes at a pivotal moment in the war. Putin’s comments about the missile coincided with praise for US President-elect Donald Trump, whom he described as “intelligent” and capable of resolving the Ukraine conflict.
Putin’s remarks seemed designed to align Russia’s interests with Trump’s anticipated foreign policy shifts. Trump’s recent appointment of retired General Keith Kellogg as his envoy for Russia and Ukraine has drawn cautious attention in Kyiv.
Kellogg has criticized Russia’s invasion but has also emphasized the need for negotiations, even suggesting that Ukraine may face catastrophic losses if it resists talks.
As winter approaches, Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leaving over a million households without power. Ukrainian officials warn that these strikes, combined with threats from the Oreshnik missile, are part of a broader campaign to weaken the nation’s resolve and force it to the negotiating table.
Despite these challenges, Zelenskyy’s administration remains adamant that negotiations can only occur from a position of strength, not surrender.
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