With the discovery of mass graves, nearly 100,000 disappearances over 13 years, and an exodus back home, Syria is roiling with political instability and facing an uncertain future.
On December 8, 2024, President Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed after a ten-day rebel-led offensive, marking the end of over 50 years of the Assad family’s dynastic Ba’athist rule in Syria.
Having based their governance on the ideas of Arab nationalism and Arab socialism, Assad’s rule culminated in civil distrust and state vulnerability, resulting in the increasing presence of groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led by Abu Jaber Hashem al-Sheikh, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (JFS) led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, and Ahrar al-Sham, led by Ali al-Omar.
The offensive began with various rebel groups seizing Aleppo on November 30th. Subsequently, Damascus fell to rebel coalitions including the HTS and JFS, each having established governments now seeking international legitimacy, while the ousted President Assad fled to Moscow.
Meanwhile, tensions persisted due to factional fighting between the Turkish, Kurdish, Syrians and other groups such as the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). With this, Israel escalated its activity with hundreds of airstrikes on Iranian and Syrian military targets, including airports, ports, military bases, and weaponry.
This marks the beginning of the tumultuous initial days for Syria’s new era of governance, as the ongoing civil war edges towards its 14-year mark. The Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011, became one of the most complex conflicts and global migration crises involving various international actors and stakeholders.
Government forces, opposition groups, Kurdish factions, and extremist organizations including, but not limited to ISIS, SNA, HTS, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have fought for territorial control and political legitimacy, often with backing from international powers aiming for the solidification of their interests in the region—a threat that is now amplified by the lack of a governing system and body.
Not only has a new wave of hope to rebuild and restructure their state emerged for Syrian refugees around the world, but a mass migration of an estimated 1 million Syrians returning to their homelands is anticipated by the UN by June 2025.
As the international community grapples with this momentous development, questions of asylum laws across the EU, third-party involvements in Syria, and a larger international cooperation to restore the Syrian state have emerged.
The Return Home
Joy spread among the 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, with many expressing hope for a better Syria. Hundreds of Syrian refugees gathered at Turkey’s Cilvegozu and Oncupinar border crossings, eager to return home after the fall of the Assad regime.
Turkish authorities allowed those with proper documentation to cross, to ensure safe and voluntary returns. However, despite the joy of returning to their homeland, nearly 87% of Syrians in neighbouring countries aspiring to return home, have stated that their income does not match their basic needs, sparking concerns over the sustenance of their livelihoods once in Syrian territory, as suggested by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Displaced Syrians in Lebanon also began returning. “There is no more torture. God willing, Syria will be better,” said Damascus native Mohammed al-Muhbuhar when speaking to DW.
In the days following Assad’s ousting, President Erdogan of Turkey announced the reopening of the Yayladagi border gate with Syria to manage the safe and voluntary return of Syrian migrants. The gate closed in 2013 due to the intensifying Syrian civil war, aiming to ease the increasing congestion and ensure domestic security through cross-border operations.
Omar Alshogre, an activist and Director for Detainee Affairs at the Syrian Emergency Task Force, shared his cathartic response to the fall of Assad's regime in an interview with DW. After spending three years in Syrian jails, he stated "This regime has killed my father and my brothers and bombed my school and burned my town and tortured me for three years. So the joy is unmatchable."
Rami Abdurrahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimated tens of thousands of prisoners were freed from Syria's notorious prisons as rebel forces toppled the Assad regime. Videos on social media showed former detainees celebrating in cities like Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, and Hama.
Among them, 63-year-old writer Bashar Barhoum, who narrowly escaped execution, expressed gratitude for his freedom to DW stating "I haven't seen the sun until today," he said. "Instead of being dead tomorrow, thank God, he gave me a new lease of life."
The Assad regime was infamous for brutal prison conditions, including systematic torture, starvation, disease, and secret executions, as reported by various human rights groups including Amnesty International and the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, and former detainees.
Germany currently hosts an estimated 974,000 Syrians, including refugees, asylum seekers, and those with subsidiary protection. As aspirations for a return to Syria emerged within the diaspora in the EU, Germany underwent significant debate over the refugees’ return. Following the large-scale migration crisis in 2015 under Angela Merkel and rising right-wing support and xenophobic tendencies, the debacle over refugee intake and returns has come to the forefront of government discussion.
CDU politician Jens Spahn proposed offering chartered flights and €1,000 payments to Syrians willing to return and pushing for an international conference on Syria’s reconstruction. However, the proposal faced criticism from Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD and the Greens. SPD’s Michael Roth and Green politician Katrin Göring-Eckardt argued it is premature to discuss returns, emphasizing the need for stability and democratic conditions in Syria first.
Germany and Austria have also temporarily suspended decisions on Syrian asylum applications. Germany’s halt affects over 47,000 cases, with Interior Minister Nancy Faeser expressing hope for refugees to return and rebuild Syria. DW suggests that Austria also paused 7,300 applications and is preparing deportation programs.
The Role of Foreign Parties
One of the most complex conflicts of the 21st century, the conflict in Syria has been witness to numerous foreign powers involving themselves and maintaining their presence to foster their economic interests. Once a key access point to the Middle East, Russia, the US and China have been key actors in orchestrating and supporting a multitude of factions, further aggravating communal tensions and conflict.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) described the fall of Syria's Assad regime as a significant political blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin, undermining his credibility among allies. Internally, the Russian public has also demanded compensation for the funds military personnel, and ammunition utilised in Syria so far, as suggested by The Guardian.
Among a variety of foreign actors who have maintained their presence in the war-torn country, Russia’s failure or choice not to reinforce Assad during the swift rebel offensive, has seemingly damaged its standing as a dependable security partner, weakening Putin’s claims to promote a multipolar world.
Russian media has further reduced its commentary on Assad’s ousting and asylum, shifting its focus to the Kremlin’s efforts to safeguard their bases and interests in Syria, citing the “lightning rebel offensive” for their lack of support to protect and uphold Assad’s regime, as reported by the BBC.
The fall of Latakia to rebels has also cast uncertainty over Russia's key military bases in Syria. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cited "extreme instability" and emphasized ongoing precautions to secure assets. Russia's Khmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base, vital for operations in Syria and Africa, now face significant threats.
The ISW indicated evidence of Russia preparing to evacuate military assets from Syria, calling the situation a major geopolitical loss. Recent satellite images reveal extensive movement on Russian military bases in Syria, as Russia redirects its resources, signaling a partial withdrawal from Syria during this tumultuous time.
Multiple transport aircraft have repeatedly arrived and departed from these bases during the past two weeks. Even if Russia retains its bases, it will depend on opposition groups it once labeled terrorists, to sustain, access and utilise these locations. Meanwhile, Kremlin sources emphasized Russia’s preference for a political resolution.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry, too, has released statements outlining “The decision to withdraw advisory forces was a responsible move, made after careful consideration of the prevailing conditions in Syria and the situation in the region.” Already weakened due to Israeli bombardment and strategic action over the nuclear and missile programs, Iran’s position in the Middle East remains uncertain as is, validating its withdrawal from Syria.
China has also echoed calls for a swift political solution to restore stability in Syria following the fall of Assad's regime. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning emphasized the need to prioritize the Syrian people's interests and asserted that Beijing is closely monitoring the situation.
Chinese leaders were previously seen establishing strong ties with Assad, announcing a strategic partnership during his visit to China last year. Additionally, a report by the Asia Times suggests that China seeks stability in Syria in order to safeguard the establishment of the “Southern Silk Route” suggesting that the offered humanitarian aid will prove mutually beneficial to returning Syrians and Chinese interests in the region.
Further, Turkey has called for an inclusive government in Syria following Assad's fall, urging international actors, especially the UN, to support its establishment. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized Ankara's commitment to facilitating the secure, voluntary return of Syrian refugees and contributing to Syria’s reconstruction.
Fidan expressed hope that Syrians would seize this “golden opportunity” and emphasized Turkey's desire for a stable Syria that coexists peacefully with its neighbors.
Turkey is a key supporter of Syrian rebels, sharing a border with rebel-held northwest Syria. President Erdogan backed the 2011 Arab Spring uprising against Assad and has supported various Islamist groups during the civil war.
The main rebel group, HTS, evolved from the Al-Nusra Front, a jihadist organization, claiming to have moderated its positions and assumed some governance roles. While HTS reportedly received Turkish drone support for its recent offensive, Turkey’s primary focus is not HTS, which has also developed its own arms production capabilities.
Turkey’s primary rebel ally is the SNA. Since ISIS's defeat, Turkey has focused on countering the Syrian-Kurdish-led SDF in northern Syria, which has ties to Turkey’s Kurdish insurgency. The SDF became a key US ally during the fight against ISIS in 2014, a partnership that remains active, with about 900 US soldiers in northern Syria collaborating with the SDF to prevent ISIS’s resurgence, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
Over the years, Turkey’s treatment of Syrian refugees has also raised alarms. Previously, forceful repatriations of Syrian refugees violated Turkey’s obligations under the 1951 Refugee Convention and risked undermining its 2015 refugee agreement with the EU. The US and EU leveraged economic and diplomatic influence to discourage deportations while financially supporting Turkey in managing the world’s largest refugee population.
The US Treasury Department sanctioned Fawaz Akhras, Bashar Assad's British-based father-in-law, for supporting Assad in financial matters, sanctions evasion, and attempts to achieve international political engagement. The sanctions were part of a broader series to mark International Human Rights Day.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Assad's overthrow a "great opportunity" but warned of risks, including the fragmentation of Syria and the spread of terrorism, especially from ISIS. Blinken emphasized the US's commitment to preventing ISIS from re-establishing its capabilities in central Syria, while the US military's Central Command reported airstrikes on ISIS targets in the central region over the weekend, without civilian casualties.
An extension of America’s ‘War on Terrorism’ question over the US’s unpredictable and outwardly biased involvement in Middle-Eastern conflicts, specifically when comparing the fall of Assad and Israel’s genocide in Gaza, is gaining momentum across social media.
The US’s issuance of a US$10 million reward for the arrest of the new Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa while outrightly supporting Israeli operations in Gaza and criticizing the ICC’s arrest warrant released for Benjamin Netanyahu serves as prevalent evidence of the differing stances.
With growing uncertainty looming over Syria’s future, the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies reported that Israel had targeted suspected chemical weapons sites and long-range rockets in a series of airstrikes, to prevent them from falling into extremist hands. According to Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, the strikes were conducted solely to protect Israel’s security and its citizens.
Coming at a time when Israel already faces international scrutiny over its genocide in Gaza, fears of a regional expansion of the conflict were heightened with increasing hostility and destruction in Lebanon. Now, with increased targets across Syria, undercurrents of regional destabilization threaten the formation of a new and stable Syrian state.
Saar clarified that Israel’s actions, including its presence in Syrian territory, are limited and temporary. Contrarily, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to “take control” of certain zones following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime, with Israel reaffirming its pattern of carrying out strikes in Syria, particularly against neighbouring Hezbollah.
The Golan Heights, a Syrian plateau occupied by Israel since 1967, has become a flashpoint due to recent Israeli military actions, including the occupation of Druze-populated areas. The Druze, an ethno-religious sect prominent in the Levant, have been caught in the conflict. In Sweida, a Druze-majority province in Syria, protests against the Assad regime began in 2020 over government abuses, despite nominal Assad control.
Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, the leader of Syria's Druze, condemned Israel's invasion of Syria and emphasized the need to maintain the country's social and territorial unity. “The Israeli invasion concerns me and I reject it,” he said when speaking to the Middle East Eye.
Speaking from Sweida province, he expressed concerns about the invasion and called for tangible actions from Syria's new government under Ahmed al-Sharaa, rather than just verbal assurances. The Druze community finds itself impacted by the recent developments, as Israel moved troops into Syrian territory shortly after HTS rebels overthrew Assad.
The Israeli military had moved into vacant posts in the demilitarized area after Syrian government forces withdrew, urging residents to stay indoors for safety. UN peacekeepers reported the continued Israeli presence at several locations, noting that Israel had informed them of the actions to prevent non-state armed groups from filling the vacuum.
US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller expressed understanding of Israel's actions, acknowledging that any country would be concerned about a security vacuum on its borders but stressed the importance of these measures being temporary. On the other hand, UN Secretary-General António Guterres asked Israel to stop its airstrikes in Syria, citing a violation of Syrian sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The UK-based Syrian Observatory reported that Israel's military struck over 100 targets in Syria, including research centers, weapons, and air defense systems. The Barzah Scientific Research Center, one of the most renowned in Syria, was also targeted. Israeli Army Radio claimed around 250 military targets were hit, marking one of the largest airstrike operations in Israel's history.
An Uncertain Future
As Syria enters a new phase in its political history, and people return to their ‘regular’ lives with children going back to schools and communities begin to reestablish themselves, larger concerns over leadership, economic restoration, and the state’s political future dominate international discussions.
The Syrian Revolution, as part of the 2011 Arab Spring, began as a demand for democratic reforms. Today, it has entered a new chapter where an aspiring democratic, multiethnic restructuring is widely anticipated.
Past efforts for peace, including UN-led talks, have failed to achieve lasting resolutions. Economic collapse and sanctions exacerbated suffering, with widespread poverty and limited access to essential services becoming one of the primary hurdles to overcome.
New efforts to host negotiations between the HTS and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, specifically revolving around the position of the Kurdish population in Syria are underway. Suggestions of the establishment of a federal state are gaining popularity, while minority representation and participation, and a liberal economy also remain pertinent.
Regional instability and the global refugee crises remain pressing concerns as masses return to Syria while the Northeastern Assyrians continue to evacuate. However, with anticipated policy changes across refugee hotspots, hopes for an international effort to safeguard the interests and future of the Syrian people are paramount. As Syria heads toward a new future, all actors must stay committed to a democratic, sovereign, multi-ethnic and secular Syria that is free from all foreign interference.
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Keywords:
Syria, Assad, Rebels, Refugees, HTS, JFS, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Israel, Reconstruction, Governance, Kurds, Democracy, Conflict, Migration, Sanctions, Stability, Hezbollah, Peace
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