“But we must not give up, it’s our chance,” remarked voter Jonathan Pernia to The Associated Press, who said he arrived much before time to cast his vote. Pernia is one of 17 million voters in Venezuela who cast their vote in the 28th July general elections anticipating “a new Venezuela, which will be reborn.”
With the National Electoral Council (CNE; Spanish for Consejo Nacional Electoral) announcing the election results on 29th July 2024, this anticipation fell flat. Nicholas Maduro won a controversial third term with 51% vote share, compared to the 44% vote share garnered by his primary competitor, Edmundo González Urrutia.
While Maduro praised his country’s electoral system, describing it as one with a “very high level of trust, security, transparency,” members of the opposition claim that all rules were violated. This has made the recent elections a bone of contention with the voters taking the forefront to voice their mounting frustration with the current administration.
Voters in Venezuela clamoured for change amidst the economic collapse set off by the incumbent President Maduro’s controversial re-election in 2018. “It’s not possible that this is happening to us,” said Ayarí Padrón, a voter, as she started crying after listening to the announcement on a cellphone, as reported by Reuters.
The Maduro-led United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) is more unpopular than ever amongst voter owing to the crushing wages, spurring hunger, and the crippling oil industry, as per a Washington Post review of more than 23,000 exit polls, representing over 80% of voters nationwide.
Soon after the announcement of results, people across the country, especially in the capital Caracas, took to the streets demonstrating their discontent with the election results. Thousands of people in the capital chanted “freedom, freedom!” calling out the “rigged” elections.
The Venezuelan Defence Minister described these protests as an impending “coup d’etat” while spotlighting the military’s "absolute loyalty and unconditional support" for Maduro. Nonetheless, the citizenry has vowed to not let these elections die down. “He has to go. One way or another,” said María Arráez, while expressing her concerns against the present government to The Associated Press.
An Unsettled History
Since 1999, Venezuela had been led by Hugo Chavez who remained in power till 2013, soon after which, Nicolás Maduro, his right hand, took over due to Chavez stepping down, given his deteriorating health condition due to cancer.
Under the Venezuelan Constitution, when a president is unable to take office or leaves within the first four years of his term, an election is held within the first 30 days of their resignation. The country underwent a seismic political shift when Nicolas Maduro, one of the longest-serving ministers under Chavez, took over.
However, such a premature replacement stirred doubt and uncertainty amongst voters. "We've only heard about him now that President Chavez is introducing him to us," remarked the public to the BBC. The legacy of Hugo Chavez inspired popular support. Like him, it was expected from Maduro to be “truly committed to the cause.”
Hugo Chavez’s presidency however, was plagued with five economic recessions, ill-advised public financing, diminishing civil liberties, and authoritarian practices. This was the state of the country despite promises to end corruption, vanquish poverty, bring about a “socialist revolution” and scrap Venezuela's old political system of military dictatorship.
Moreover, the increasing dependence on oil exports has led to a lack of diversity in the goods that Venezuela exports, with non-oil products only holding 4% of the total exports, as suggested by Gerver Torres, Director of Leadership and Vision at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. This led to exclusive reliance on the precariously fluctuating price of oil.
For much of Chavez’s reign, public financing was characterised by spending the country’s oil revenue on welfare projects abroad, considered to have been undertaken primarily to gain influence. With a 32% rise in oil revenues, Chavez began funding eye surgeries for poor Mexicans, and providing basic necessities to poor American families in order to gain political significance and pose competition to his counterpart in the United States.
Furthermore, in the early years of Chavez’s presidency, voters approved a new constitution, increasing the presidential term to six years and expanding presidential powers. This paved the way for his re-election in the next term.
In continuation of Chavez’s legacy, the socialist PSUV took control of key institutions after Maduro took over, i.e. the Supreme Tribunal of Justice and the National Electoral Council. This was the natural consequence of the PSUV-led government holding 256 out of the 277 seats in the National Assembly. Consequently, the party’s almost absolute control of the legislature allowed them to take the reins of the country’s executive as well.
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The PSUV’s dominance in primary institutions within the country is evident from the array of government allies who are at the helm of these institutions. For instance, the President of the National Electoral Council (CNE), Elvis Amoroso, used to work with Mr. Maduro’s legal counsel. As a result, the CNE tampering with the election results “becomes a very real possibility,” according to BBC.
In addition to this, the hyperinflation, plummeting oil prices, and lack of basic necessities during Maduro’s previous term added to the declining state of the economy since Chavez’s era, bringing the country closer to the tip of an economic collapse. Factors such as imports for basic goods, depending on oil as its main export, excessive printing of the Venezuelan currency, and governmental corruption worsened the situation.
The deplorable state of economy compelled many Venezuelans to cross the border and find refuge in neighbouring countries. More than 6.1 million refugees and migrants left Venezuela as a result of the political turmoil and socio-economic instability. “We lost everything, there was no work, no food and prices were rising like anything. We had no option but to move to Colombia,” said Elsa Maribel, one of the million Venezuelans who fled their country while being interviewed by DW News.
Amidst the growing disillusionment, Maduro saw a re-election in 2018 which was widely dismissed as a sham due to the compromised state of free and fair elections in the country, with the executive and judiciary being under the control of the PSUV. As a result, the fragmented opposition united and unanimously declared the speaker of the National Assembly, Juan Guaido ‘interim president’.
The majority of opposition parties withdrew their support for Guaido in December 2022 and dissolved his "interim government".
While most Latin American countries along with the US and the UK recognised Guaido as the President-elect, China and Russia continued to extend unwavering support to Maduro’s re-election.
In October 2023, the opposition chose ex-diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia to contest the elections against President Maduro after former lawmaker María Corina Machado was banned by the comptroller-general, an ally of President Maduro, from holding public office. Reasons cited for her ban were primarily her open-support for the sanctions the US placed on the Maduro Government.
Meanwhile, Maduro, who ran for a third consecutive term, warned that a defeat for his socialist PSUV party could trigger "a bloodbath." Apart from this, there were eight other candidates who contested the elections but did not poll above 10% in the opinion polls. Following the announcement of the election results, the United States officially recognised Edmundo González Urrutia as the new President-elect, intensifying tensions across the region.
Around 21 million people were registered to vote against a backdrop of hope and fear in a presidential election that could end 25 years of socialist rule, as reported by Al Jazeera. “Establishing fair and free elections within an authoritarian regime is impossible,” remarks Jesús Castellanos, a consultant at Electoral Transparency, an organisation.
However, the Venezuelan diaspora living around the world face a myriad of struggles, as only an approximate 69,000 expatriates of an estimated 7.7 million were registered to vote, as suggested by The Conversation. Not only did this provide room for speculation among the electorate, but further raised alarms on whether electoral and democratic processes were followed.
Opinion polls conducted by AS/COA, a US-based non-profit organisation, suggested that 59.6% voters were likely to vote for Gonzalaez, while Maduro was trailing behind at 12.5%.
Once polls closed, the CNE declared that President Maduro had gained 51% of the vote, compared to the 44% for Edmundo González Urrutia, with 80% of the vote counted. The electoral council said Maduro had earned 6.4 million votes while the opposition garnered 5.3 million.
However, the opposition dismissed the CNE's announcement as fraudulent and promised to challenge the result. “We won, and everyone knows it,” said the opposition while speaking to CNN, adding that Edmundo González Urrutia had won with 73.2% of the votes and insisted he was the rightful president-elect. The opposition posited that a review of the electoral records indicates a “categorical and mathematically irreversible” victory over Maduro.
The International Response
The international community, too, shared mixed reactions to the election results with some congratulating and calling it a “historic victory” while others dismissing the results as “fraudulent and intransparent.”
Amongst the countries who rejected the results was the Chilean President who called for a “transparent and timely” election that “fully reflect the popular.”
Meanwhile, US Vice President Kamala Harris tweeted that the “the will of the Venezuelan people must be respected.” Additionally, a press statement by the Secretary of State Anthony Blinken rejected “Maduro’s unsubstantiated allegations against opposition leaders”.
On the heels of the statements made by the highest echelons of the US government, Washington recognised Edmundo González Urrutia as the winner of the elections, claiming there is “overwhelming” evidence of Nicolás Maduro’s defeat.
Likewise, the Colombian foreign minister, too, was dissatisfied with the results awaiting “the total vote count, its verification and independent audit.” On the contrary, the Chinese and Russian President congratulated Maduro on his victory, signalling a deepening of Venezuela’s existing ties with these countries and maintenance of the 2018 status quo.
The Brazilian President Lula Da Silva issued a public statement reposing faith in the impartial verification of the results by the CNE. The Mexican President, too, asserted recognition for the government elected by the people of Venezuela.
In a joint statement the week the results were announced, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico called on the National Electoral Council (CNE) to release all the original vote tally sheets, considering that the ultimate proof of results.
With this, nine Latin American countries have expressed the need to conduct an emergency meeting of the Organization of American States, while expressing their support for the people of Venezuela and their right to a transparent and credible democracy.
The Road Ahead
As Venezuela witnessed the most consequential elections of its history, a mix of anger, tears and loud pot-banging greeted the announcement of results. The international community, too, expressed its discontent and satisfaction with the election results with some countries vowing to change the status quo of Venezuela’s plagued democracy.
The country’s political landscape is marked by long-standing authoritarian presidencies, garnering support for their socialist ideas and causing economic wreckage. While the future of Maduro's 25-year rule, characterised by significant economic challenges, remains uncertain, what is clear is that the current use of democratic processes has raised grave concerns about the integrity of free and fair elections.
Edited by Veda Rodewald and Thenthamizh SS
Aashi Sharma (she/her) is a student of law at the Rajiv Gandhi National University of law, Punjab and a writer at Political Pandora.
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